September 7, 2010, 9:02 am
Democrats Arenft Running From Health Care. But What Are
They Running On?
By NATE
SILVER
Itfs clear that Republican candidates for Congress expect to gain traction
from the health care bill that Democrats passed this year, and that most polls
show at least a plurality of the country remains opposed to. Although most
Democratic candidates are willing to address the health care issue, they are
having to do so more carefully.
But rather than being a matter of unique importance, health care is instead
one of a patchwork of issues contributing to a tricky political environment for
the Democrats, an analysis of campaign Web sites suggests, in which they have
few forward-looking messages for voters.
With the help of FiveThirtyEightfs news assistant, Micah Cohen, I studied the
campaign Web sites of Republican and Democratic candidates for the House in the
33 Congressional districts currently labeled toss-ups by The New York Times political
desk. Although a few candidates did not highlight particular issues on their
official Web pages, and a few others remain engaged in primaries where there is
no clear favorite, we were able to examine the sites for 29 Republicans and 29
Democrats who are likely to be on the ballot in November. We then examined the
subjects these candidates highlighted on the gissuesh sections of their sites,
dividing them into roughly 30 categories.
Issues Highlighted on Web sites of Democratic and Republican
Candidates in 33 Toss-up Districts
Excluding the broad subject of the economy, which we divided into several
subcategories like jobs, taxes and deficits, health care was the most frequently
mentioned issue. Of the 29 Republicans in these pivotal districts, all but one
mentioned it, with many suggesting that the Democratsf bill should be repealed.
But health care was also highlighted by 23 of the 29 Democrats, making it the
most cited issue among that party as well.
The Democratsf message was varied. Some, like Colleen Hanabusa, who is
running in Hawaiifs First Congressional District in Honolulu, had clear praise for the Democratsf
health care goals. Others, like Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, a
moderate Democrat from South Dakota who voted against the bill, lauded some of
the billfs achievements, while criticizing
other provisions and calling for further reform.
Still, most Democrats were willing to engage their constituents on the issue.
And beneath the surface, their message was fairly consistent. Most Democrats –-
whether they voted for the bill or against it –- suggested that it had been a
reasonable start and had worthy goals, but that it required further
tinkering.
What was more striking in our examination was a Republican agenda that
appeared in sharper relief than the Democratic one, and which was more readily
contributing to their messages to voters on the campaign trail.
For some Republican candidates, the agenda may indeed begin with the health
care bill, which many are pledging to repeal. But there are also issues like the
deficit, which more than four out of five Republicans highlighted on their Web
sites in some form. Some 60 percent of Republicans, meanwhile -– including some
in states far removed from the Mexican border -– addressed immigration, usually
advocating tighter border security.
Democrats, on the other hand, are having trouble articulating a clear set of
policy goals. After health care, the issues mentioned most frequently by
Democrats were energy, jobs and education – each of which were highlighted by 7
out of 10 Democrats. But these issues do not necessarily lend themselves to a
crisp set of policy proposals. The country has been debating various efforts at
job creation since the start of President Obamafs term, and usually with little
consensus. Although Mr. Obama has advanced an education plan, it has received
scant attention in Congress, making it hard for Democrats to draw clear
contrasts. On energy, the Democrats do have a clearer policy proposal: their
bill to introduce a cap-and-trade system, which passed the House last year but
not the Senate. Many of the Democrats, however, spoke about genergy
independenceh in much vaguer terms (as did many Republicans). And a few – like
Mike Oliverio, a conservative Democrat in West Virginia — noted their opposition to the
cap-and-trade proposal.
Arguably, the frequent mention of education on the Democratsf Web sites – as
well as another issue, veteransf affairs – speaks somewhat to the weakness of
their political position. Few voters will object to these issues: who wouldnft
want to support our children, or our troops? But without specific policy
proposals attached to them (and more specifically, policy proposals that
Republicans have raised objections to) it is not clear that they will motivate
Democratic and swing voters to go to the polls.
Meanwhile, the Democrats in these swing districts are keeping some issues
that have traditionally motivated their partyfs base in mothballs. Only 4 of the
29 Democrats, for instance, mentioned their position on abortion, even though
most polls show that a plurality of voters still support abortion rights. In
contrast, the issue was touched upon by more than half of the Republicans.
While many Democrats mentioned energy independence, only a few were willing
to couch the debate in terms of the environment, in spite of the oil spill in
the Gulf of Mexico and given that the environment remains one
of the few issues on which voters still give Democrats a clear edge.
None of the Democrats, meanwhile, mentioned labor organizing rights (and only
one Republican did), even though the Employee Free Choice Act – a bill that
would ease union formation – ostensibly remains a part of their agenda.
And both Republicans and Democrats avoided the issue of gay rights, where public
opinion is shifting. Even if gay marriage were too controversial to be a
part of the Democratic agenda in most swing districts, the Democrats might
theoretically gain ground by highlighting their support for allowing gay men and
lesbians to serve openly in the military, where large majorities of the public
back their position. But perhaps hamstrung by Mr. Obama, who has taken a series
of half-steps on the issue, few of these Democrats have chosen to do so.
In other ways, indeed, Democratic candidates are handicapped by an ambiguous
set of policy priorities advanced by their leadership. Repealing the Bush tax
cuts for high-income earners, a priority of Mr. Obamafs on the campaign trail in
2008, remains at least reasonably popular. But that agenda item has been placed
on hold as Democrats debate whether any kind of tax increase would be wise while
the economy remains sluggish. Meanwhile, although Democrats were more likely
than Republicans to mention the war in Afghanistan, their traditional
reservedness about military engagements is flummoxed by Mr. Obamafs having
expanded troop commitments there.
On other issues, the Democrats are in some ways victims of their own success.
That they passed a health care bill, for example — albeit one that much of the
public objects to – strikes from their agenda an item that had been a policy
priority of theirs for more than half a century. And with the war in Iraq slowly
winding down, Democrats can no longer gain ground by pledging a withdrawal from
that country, as Mr. Obama did in 2008.
Finally, a few second-tier issues that would seem to be unambiguously good
draws for voters have been all but forgotten by the Democrats. Only about a
quarter of the Democrats mentioned financial reform, even though they succeeded
in passing a bill that received decent reviews from economists and voters. And
only 1 in 10 mentioned campaign finance reform, where they would seem to have
the more popular position.
Instead, on many issues like health care, Democrats seem to be hoping that
the best offense is a good defense. In some cases – like Social Security and
Medicare, which Democrats were more likely to mention than Republicans – they
may be making an effort to pre-empt Republican proposals to trim the programs,
which may emerge during the budgetary debates of the next several years. But
whether these issues have yet ripened for voters is unclear.
Democrats have criticized Republicans for their vague agenda – and certainly
the Republicans have not articulated anything as succinct as the Contract With
America, which aided their exceptional performance in the midterm elections of
1994. But Republicans do appear to have a message that is at least reasonably
clear to voters, and reasonably consistent from one Congressional district to
the next: pick us, and wefll repeal health care, secure the border and reduce
the size of government. Democrats, meanwhile, who two years ago seemed to have a
glut of agenda items, are now having trouble articulating to their constituents
exactly what a Democratic vote would gain them. Perhaps thatfs why Democrats are
having trouble both with the sizable number
of voters who are dissatisfied with both parties and in motivating
their base.
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